Colsaerts starts strong at Volvo Golf Champions

Golf Betting Lines

01/19/2012 - George, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nicolas Colsaerts fired a nine-under 64 on Thursday to take the opening-round lead of the Volvo Golf Champions event.

He owns a four-stroke cushion after round one at the par-73 Links at Fancourt.

The field is an exclusive one with only winners from last year's European Tour schedule, winners from the first two events of 2012 and current tour members under the age of 50 with more than 10 victories.

Last week's Joburg Open winner Branden Grace, Thomas Aiken and Tom Lewis share second place at five-under 68.

Three-time major champion Padraig Harrington, 2010 British Open winner Louis Oosthuizen, David Horsey and Joost Luiten are tied for fifth at four-under-par 69.

Everyone is chasing Colsaerts, a Belgian who gained entry into the field this week thanks to his victory at last year's China Open.

Colsaerts broke into red figures with a 12-foot birdie putt at the second, then dropped a shot four holes later. He polished off his front nine with consecutive birdies at eight and nine.

Those back-to-back birdies before the turn kicked off an amazing run. He birdied 10 and 11 for four birdies in a row, then, after a par at the 12th, birdied the 13th.

Colsaerts parred the 14th hole, but got into the clubhouse in grand style.

He knocked his approach to six feet to set up birdie at the 15th. Colsaerts drained a putt of similar length for birdie at No. 16 and tallied his third straight birdie at the par-three 17th.

Colsaerts, now three shots ahead at eight-under par, two-putted from 35 feet at the par-five closing hole to sign for his nine-under 64.

"This is probably the best of my life. It's a serious test of golf," said Colsaerts. "I think the longest putt I holed was from 12 feet on the second."

Colin Montgomerie, in the field this week due to his career wins total, shot a three-under 71 and is knotted in ninth place with Matthew Zions.

The tournament is without a defending champion. Paul Casey won last year, but is out of action for at least two months after he dislocated his right shoulder in a snowboarding accident in Colorado.

Reigning British Open champion Darren Clarke only managed a one-over 74 and is tied for 24th, while last year's Masters winner, Charl Schwartzel, struggled to a two-over 75 on Thursday.

NOTES: Colsaerts led the European Tour in driving distance two years ago...This was not Colsaerts' lowest round on tour. He fired 62s in Indonesia in 2005 and the Netherlands two years ago, but both came on par-70 layouts...Ernie Els, who is still not eligible for the Masters, shot a two- under 71.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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