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04/03/2010 - Ozone Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Odds-on favorite Eskendereya ran away down the stretch Saturday to capture the $750,000 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The victory puts the colt among the favorites for this year's Kentucky Derby.
Eskendereya, who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes by more than eight-lengths, used a stalking ride by John Velazquez to take the lead on the final turn in the Wood and post a double-digit win over five rivals.
Setting the pace in the 1 1/8-mile race was Most Happy Fella with Jackson Bend in second and the 1-2 favorite in third. Farther back was Gotham Stakes winner Awesome Act, about four-lengths behind the leader.
On the turn for home Most Happy Fella had a short lead on the inside as Eskendereya moved to the outside to draw even. Jackson Bend was running third between the top two horses.
Eskendereya took the lead entering the stretch and proceeded to widen his advantage. The chestnut colt continued to increase his lead down the stretch to eventually hit the wire with a 9 3/4-length victory.
Jackson Bend held on for second followed by Awesome Act, Schoolyard Dreams, Carnivore and Most Happy Fella.
The time for the Wood Memorial was 1:49.97 on a fast track.
Owned by Zayat Stables, Eskendereya is the top three-year-old in trainer Todd Pletcher's stable. The colt notched his third straight win with the Wood victory which was worth $450,000. He now has won four of six starts with career earnings of $725,700.
"He has all the tools that you would like to see," Pletcher noted, "and you know the things that's exciting about him is the one thing we've been very confident all along is that he wants to run the distances of you know the classic races. I don't see a mile and a quarter or even a mile and a half in this for him, he just has tremendous natural stamina. You know he's physically a strong horse, he holds up to his races well, he eats well. You know, you can sometimes, if you get a couple of races into a campaign, you'll start to see horses start to lose a little condition, a little weight and he's thriving on it. So yeah, I think you know from all those standpoints he's got all the right tools."
After finishing second in his debut last year Eskendereya won the Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont Park in October and was ninth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.
Eskendereya returned $3.00, $2.30 and $2.10. Jackson Bend paid $3.90 and $2.60, and Awesome Act paid $2.20 to show.
The last Wood Memorial winner to capture the Kentucky Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.
<< Kim joins Molder in first in Houston
Humble, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Anthony Kim shot a three-under 69 on Saturday
and joined second-round leader Bryce Molder, who had a 71, in the lead after
54 holes of the Houston Open.
Kim and Molder are knotted at 10-under 206 and are tw
<< Avs ink defensemen Shattenkirk, Cohen
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche signed defensemen Kevin
Shattenkirk and Colby Cohen to entry-level contracts Saturday. Terms of the
deal were not released.
Both players were instrumental in Boston University's 2
<< Motta's brace lifts Inter past Bologna
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A goal in each half from Thiago Motta helped
Inter Milan secure a comfortable 3-0 win over Bologna at the San Siro on
Saturday.
Motta struck the opening goal in the 29th minute to give Inter the le
<< Islanders snap Senators' six-game win streak
Uniondale, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Tavares tallied a goal and an assist, as
the New York Islanders snapped the Ottawa Senators' six-game winning streak
with a convincing 4-1 win at Nassau Coliseum.
Dylan Reese, Jack Hillen and Sean
Lyon moves into first in Ligue 1 >>
Rennes, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michel Bastos and Lisandro Lopez both scored
early in the second half and Lyon edged Rennes 2-1 at Lorient Road stadium on
Saturday to move into first place in France's Ligue 1.
Lyon entered the weekend in
Barcelona cruises past Athletic Bilbao >>
Barcelona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lionel Messi scored his La Liga-high 26th
goal, Bojan Krkic scored twice, Jeffren Suarez added his first of the season,
and Barcelona beat Athletic Bilbao 4-1 on Saturday at Camp Nou.
Barcelona opened a
Oakland's Crisp heads to DL with broken finger >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Oakland Athletics outfielder Coco Crisp
will begin the season on the disabled list with a fractured left pinkie.
Crisp sustained the injury while sliding into second base in the third inning
of Oaklan
Alford gets extension at New Mexico >>
Albuquerque, NM (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of New Mexico and Steve
Alford agreed to a two-year contract extension through the 2019-20 season,
school vice president of athletics Paul Krebs announced on Saturday.
The Lobos are
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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